The West Under Convergent Pressure: Motive Without Conspiracy, the Dollar “Hit,” and the GROC Acceleration Scenario

This started as a throwaway in a chat — the kind of rumor you expect to evaporate before breakfast. Someone claimed they’d worked for Musk and that he was pushing a “hit the West to save the world” idea: a deliberate, surgical gut-punch to Western systems, pitched as a moral reset to accelerate his blueprint for a better tomorrow. I don’t buy it. There’s no proof, and it smells like Discord cosplay theater. But the contour of the claim — its geometry, not its author — matched the “GROC” frame we’ve been exploring. Enough to run the thought experiment: if someone really did want to push the West off balance without pushing the whole world into nuclear winter, what would it take? How would it unfold? Who benefits? And how fragile are the systems we lean on?

The short answer was uglier than expected. You don’t need collusion. Aligned incentives, strategic chokepoints, and long-term systemic drift do most of the work. The slow erosion of dollar primacy, the build-out of parallel economic and infrastructure systems, and the political latency inside Western democracies create a pre-existing slope. The right shove — kinetic or not — could send it sliding. That’s why this write-up exists: not to accuse Musk or anyone else, but to stress-test the world we actually have, alongside the slower “no-conspiracy” pathway already visible in the data.

The improbable but catastrophic case is a coordinated kinetic strike — about seventy-five high-yield detonations or non-nuclear equivalents — against value-dense, flow-critical nodes designed to paralyze Western command and control. Under current deterrence, it’s unlikely. But “unlikely” isn’t “impossible,” especially when you stop assuming every actor shares the same risk logic. The more probable path is already in play: a non-kinetic, structural “hit” powered by the convergence of multiple actors’ motives — some national, some personal — without a single secret meeting.

Motive without conspiracy means looking at why these vectors align:
— States (BRICS+) weaken U.S. sanctions leverage by moving trade and settlement off the dollar and onto parallel rails like CIPS, SPFS, and mBridge (5)(6).
— The Global South hedges against currency and debt risk by diversifying reserves; IMF COFER shows the dollar’s share in gradual decline (7).
— Multinationals improve margins and market access by sidestepping Western regulatory friction — EV tariffs are already driving parallel supply ecosystems (8)(9)(10).
— Western treasuries and elites hedge portfolios with gold and non-USD assets (7).

Layered into this are leadership and oligarchic incentives:
— Xi Jinping plays a long game of structural positioning, building redundancy against sanctions and shaping supply chains through loyalist industrial blocs. His political survival is tied to the Party’s narrative control; economic insulation via Party-aligned oligarchs lets him weather short-term shocks in pursuit of a strategic end-state less dependent on the West.
— Vladimir Putin fuses his own survival with that of the Russian state. The war economy enriches loyal oligarchs, funds patronage networks, and creates vested interests in keeping the West off balance. Strategic disruption abroad shores up domestic legitimacy.
— Oligarch classes in both systems profit when Western leverage weakens. They see advantage in parallel settlement rails, chokepoint leverage, and political fragmentation inside adversaries — whether or not they sit in the same room to plan it.

You don’t have to assume collusion. These motives and pressures align naturally, and alignment alone can produce effects that, from the outside, look coordinated.

Systemic stress amplifies this. Critical-minerals refining is concentrated enough that supply coercion is a realistic lever (4)(11). Political latency in the West is worsening — Freedom House marks the nineteenth straight year of decline, EIU’s index hits record lows (12)(13)(14). Slower reaction times make it easier for others to set the tempo.

On-the-ground indicators make the drift visible:
— Financial plumbing: CIPS processes multi-trillion RMB annually (5)(15); mBridge reaches MVP for multi-CBDC settlement (6); COFER shows reserve diversification (7).
— Trade & commodities: Non-USD energy/resource deals spike when sanctions bite; BRICS expansion ties directly to reshaping global order (16).
— Corporate adaptation: U.S./EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, batteries, and solar tighten (8)(10)(17); firms build dual-compliance supply chains and hedge currency exposure.
— Infrastructure pressure: Volt Typhoon pre-positions in U.S. lifeline sectors including Guam (1); Russian cyber activity targeted U.S. energy from 2011–2018 (18); undersea cable risk prompts EU Cable Security Action Plan (2)(19). The Suez blockage showed a $6–10B/day cost for a single chokepoint (3). Recorded Future warns of rising state-backed cable threats (20)(21).

The 18-year trendline: 2007–2010 — BRIC communiqués call for diversified monetary system; China deploys RMB swap lines (5). 2010–2014 — yuan clearing banks in Europe; CIPS groundwork; Belt and Road ports proliferate; Crimea sanctions spark SWIFT-alternative talk (5). 2015–2018 — CIPS live; RMB in SDR; central banks net gold buyers (5). 2019–2021 — COVID exposes fragility; non-USD commodity pilots; Sino-Iran 25-year deal with non-dollar channels (22). 2022–2024 — Russia sanctions force rapid de-dollarization; BRICS expansion invites major commodity exporters; mBridge MVP (6)(16). 2024–2025 — U.S./EU tariff walls; EU cable security push; Baltic incidents move from suspicion to charges (8)(9)(10)(23).

Where GROC fits: It’s the compression play — shock-loading years of convergent drift into a single disruption event. Seventy-five high-yield strikes or equivalents against value-dense nodes to force Western paralysis and accelerate realignment.

Why the motive is real: The compressed end-state matches what slow-burn incentives already favor.
Why probability stays low — but not zero: MAD and NUTS deterrence logics assume all parties value stability and survival enough to avoid triggering unacceptable damage. But those are shared logics, and leadership cultures like Xi’s and Putin’s may weigh risk differently — factoring personal survival, regime cohesion, and domestic control in ways that make brinkmanship more acceptable.
Why you don’t need collusion: State goals, oligarch profit motives, and regime survival instincts line up on their own.

Tripwires to watch: ≥3 in a quarter = elevated posture:
1) Multi-theater cable/port disruptions with sustained war-risk premiums >~1% on ≥2 lanes (3).
2) CISA/NSA advisories naming implants in continuity or IXP infrastructure (1).
3) COFER USD share slippage paired with CIPS/mBridge spikes (6)(7)(15).
4) U.S./EU emergency-response latency during the same window (12)(13).
5) Coordinated non-USD settlement by ≥2 large exporters in energy/metals (16).

Current read: Kinetic GROC window (5–10y) = low (<~5%) absent tripwire clusters. Non-kinetic “functional hit” = moderate and rising.

Mitigations: Harden IXPs, grid black-start islands, subsea landing stations; resource rapid-repair cable fleets (2)(19). Pre-clear emergency procurement. Increase transparency on nat-sec dockets. Diversify minerals refining (4)(11). Interoperate with mBridge/allied CBDCs to avoid exclusion (6).

Scope note: No claim of mass assets inside USG. Evidence supports targeted exposure, influence attempts, and structural fragility — not wholesale capture (1). Stats from Reuters/BIS/IMF/IEA to avoid propaganda distortion (16)(6)(7)(4). Operational details excluded; this is risk analysis, not an instruction set.